Analysez la performance réelle des prédictions Prime70.
baseline_v1 · 12075 matchs notés
··· Calibration parfaite ● Fréquence observée
Carte cal_baseline_v1_20261019023013_8mzb2 active · isotonic sur 12075 matchs · Brier 0.624942 → 0.613151 · ECE 0.074363 → 0.015834.
Barre = fréquence observée · trait vertical = probabilité annoncée moyenne.
| Segment | n | Accuracy | Brier | Log Loss | Score exact | Strong Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | 10778 | 48.5% | 0.630 | 1.046 | 10.3% | 0 |
| 1.00–2.00 | 822 | 63.0% | 0.545 | 0.928 | 8.8% | 337 · 68.3% |
| 2.00–2.50 | 356 | 43.8% | 0.645 | 1.067 | 11.5% | 33 · 51.5% |
| 2.50–3.00 | 87 | 31.0% | 0.674 | 1.107 | 10.3% | 0 |
| 3.00–4.00 | 24 | 41.7% | 0.670 | 1.106 | 8.3% | 0 |
| 4.00–5.00 | 6 | 16.7% | 0.723 | 1.188 | 16.7% | 0 |
| 5.00+ | 2 | 0.0% | 0.733 | 1.179 | 50.0% | 0 |
